AhlulBayt News Agency (ABNA): Japan's economic growth in the second quarter of this year fell to about 1 percent, a figure indicating a sharp slowdown compared to forecasts expecting 2 percent growth. This decline is a direct reflection of disruptions in global supply chains following the U.S. and Zionist regime war against Iran, as well as a decline in consumer spending for the first time since the second quarter of 2024.
According to Maha Matsumura, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Japan, this decline in growth is mainly due to a drop in household consumption, a sector that makes up more than 50 percent of Japan's economy. Japanese companies' capital spending has also fallen by 1.2 percent, and food and energy prices have risen noticeably due to disruptions in supply chains and the transport of cargo from the Persian Gulf region following the war against Iran.
The correspondent adds that only Japan's exports have been able to support the country's economy, benefiting from foreign demand for cars and semiconductor products. However, core inflation in Japan is expected to reach 1.8 percent in July, compared to 1.6 percent in June. This situation has left the Bank of Japan with a difficult dilemma: whether to raise interest rates or allow the economy to continue under inflationary pressure.
Crisis in Germany's Automotive Industry
On the other side, the effects of this disruption caused by the war against Iran have also reached the heart of Germany's automotive industry. The country faces a severe shortage of essential engine oils, especially Group III oils used in modern engines and Group II oils used for buses and trucks. The shortage of ethylene, a material used in the production of oils for the luxury industry, has also added to the problems.
Isa Tayebi, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Berlin, has reported that Germany's stocks of modern engine oils ran out at the end of June, and the country has officially entered a crisis of shortage of this vital material.
Meanwhile, Gabriela Tünning, head of the General Association for Oil Pricing in Germany, has warned that if an immediate solution is not found, producers will be forced to reduce production volumes.
Depletion of Stocks and Rising Transport Costs
On the other hand, Matthias Brügmann, an economic analyst specializing in the German automotive market, says that major companies like Liqui Moly are facing serious problems caused by declining oil stocks and rising transport costs.
He warns that alternative options are very limited and the only solution is to end the war between the United States and Iran and restore the supply flow from the Persian Gulf region.
Brügmann also referred to the attack on Qatar's liquefied natural gas facilities in March, and says that Germany's Verdi trade union and the public transport organization have warned about the possibility of a recession in logistics activities, a recession that, if the current situation continues, will affect not only Germany's automotive industry but the entire country.
Historic Surge in Engine Oil Prices
Engine oil prices have fluctuated several times since 2020. According to this report, prices increased by about 20 percent following the restrictions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
After the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, prices rose another 30 percent, and in 2023, coinciding with peak global inflation, they experienced a 21 percent increase.
Prices temporarily fell in 2024 and 2025, but with the start of the war against Iran and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, they surged again, reaching their highest historical levels.
The Strait of Hormuz Crisis; A Wake-Up Call for Global Trade
Analyses show that the economic consequences of the U.S. and Zionist regime war against Iran have not been limited to the Middle East, but have spread to the heart of Asian and European economies.
In Japan, citizens face rising prices and declining purchasing power, and in Germany, automakers are struggling to secure necessary raw materials and supplies.
This situation once again shows the changing map of global trade and reveals the limitations of supply chains dependent on geopolitically tense passages. Chains whose disruption in a vital route like the Strait of Hormuz can manifest its consequences thousands of kilometers away, in the world's largest economies.
**************
End/ 345E
